Russia’s success in
getting Ukraine to pull back from signing an agreement with the E.U. obscures a
deeper trend. Moscow’s relations with its neighboring countries have been
steadily declining and it does not appear to be improving. Since Putin returned
as president in 2012 ties with E.U. members have been strained.
The deterioration is clearer
closer to Russia, despite the countries effort to restore its influences in the
former Soviet space. In the opinion of some Putin’s vision of Russia is
counterproductive and the country overstates their leverage, which leads to
straining foreign ties.
Ukraine is not the only country
Russia targets for punishment using restrictions and bans on weapons; they
attempt to punish anyone who disagrees with their policies. These threats have not
stopped the countries of Moldova and Georgia from making agreements with the
E.U.
Georgia is friendlier with
Russia then in the past, but that will not prevent them from expanding their
European ties, which offer far more potential in their markets. Russia has
wielded trade bans for these countries and will continue to do so; this was one
of their main tactics against the Ukraine.
As Russia tried to force its
will on the former Soviet Union it appears to be suffering from a “Little
England” phase. Russia is trying to find its place after the fall of their
empire and this leads to growing pains.
The Ukraine is right in the
middle of Russia and the E.U. and will not sign with the E.U. due to Russian
threats. This has strained the countries relationships and made the Ukraine
very weary of entering any Russian agreements and their Customs union. Belarus, which is a member of the union,
still has disputes with Russia, and they jailed a Russian business executive.
Belarus felt Ukraine’s deal with the E.U. would make it easier for them to
trade with Europe.
Some Russians are not sure the
triumph of Ukraine’s policy is worth it, because Europe is very upset at
Russia’s economic threats and frustrations of the E.U.’s “Eastern
Partnerships”. Russia threatened Ukraine even though they trade with the E.U.
and its other former Soviet countries, far more according to the IMEMO
(Institute of World Economy and International Relations). Russia has spoiled
their European relations.
The IMEMO doesn’t feel the
Ukraine’s decision on signing an E.U. agreement is as high stakes as the
country claims it to be. They feel the Ukraine was playing the decision for all
it was worth. The IMEMO feel Ukraine is playing the game, and with Ukraine’s
weak economy they are unsure why Europe is so interested.
The Customs Union, which consists of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, was
simply designed as a trade bloc. Russian pressure forced Armenia to ask to join
the Union, after they were unable to agree with the E.U. Putin wants to create
a Slavic league that would be apart from Western Europe, in hopes of
modernizing the members’ economies, but this has failed.
Putin was encouraged to engage
in these ideas by President Obama’s dialing back U.S. involvement in Russia’s
neighbors, in order to strengthen relations with Moscow. Putin thought this gave him a freer hand but
he neglected the E.U. and calculations of neighboring countries. Putin views
all foreign policy in a Russia-U.S. relation light, which has prevented him
from seeing complications closer to home. Central Asian countries are trading
more and more frequently with China.
Russia has been organizing their
military to assist Tajikistan in anticipations of NATO withdrawing from
Afghanistan, and this has alarmed many critics. The worry may not be needed
though because the Russian military remains very inefficient and suffers from
manpower shortages and corruption. A recent reform program has been halted.
Russia tends to have an
adversarial stance when dealing with nations, which leads victories to be
painful for the other side, and leads to resentment. Viktor Kremenyuk, of the
Institute for the USA and Canada believes Russia needs to realize they are no
longer in a hostile world and should change their polices to reflect this.
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